¹ Visiting professor in developing countries, Agromet Vision, Bondowoso (Indonesia) and Bruchem (Netherlands) (cjstigter@usa.net)
² Academy Professorship Indonesia & Professor of Anthropology, Department of Anthropology, Faculty of Social & Political Sciences, KNAW-AIPI, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia (yunitatw@ui.ac.id)

Prof. Yunita T. Winarto (with rain gauge) and Prof. Kees Stigter discuss rainfall measurements with farmers from Wareng, Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta Special Province, Indonesia. Photo courtesy of authors.

In this companion paper to “What Climate Change Means for Farmers in Asia,” we report on our work in Indonesia to try to build a rural response to climate change. Our approach started with meetings to answer farmers’ questions on climate change and its consequences. For the present, farmers in places like Indramayu, coastal West Java, must find more answers to the increasing rainfall variability, including increasingly severe extreme events presently are experienced and predicted to continue. We therefore proceeded with advocating and guiding daily simple rainfall measurements by farmers in their plots together with increased daily observations and analyses of their agro-ecosystems. This data is also recorded for comparisons in later years. We are also advocating for this approach to be used elsewhere in Asia.

(II) I. INTRODUCTION

In the first part of this paper, we considered what climate change means for farmers in Asia, particularly in Indonesia. It is true any changes as to successful mitigation of the impacts of climate change and adaptation to its realities will entail changes in individual behavior, technology, institutions, agricultural systems and socio-economic systems [1], but it is also true that this will have to be done from the bottom up [2].

(II) II. HOW DID OUR PAST WORK FIT THE BEGINNING OF A RURAL RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?

After economic reasonings, climate disaster issues are the second great argument for national weather and other environmental services. Climate disasters also give way for research institutes and universities to jointly convince the Indonesian government of the necessity of getting away from a largely rice-only agriculture, and for funding the design of new cropping systems and testing them on-farm in various regions in a participatory approach [3].

II.A. Global warming

In [4] it was recently confirmed that as the daily minimum temperature increases, so as nights get hotter in general, rice yields drop. This is largely due to increasing respiration for growth maintenance purposes at night. This diminishes the daily photosynthetically assembled assimilates, which in turn lead to lower yields. This was the first study to assess the impact of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures on irrigated rice production in farmer-managed rice fields in tropical and subtropical regions of Asia. The study was unique because it used data collected in farmers’ fields, an important addition to what was already known from controlled experiments. About three billion people eat rice every day, and out of the world’s billion poorest and undernourished, more than 60 percent of those who live in Asia depend on rice as their staple food. A decline in rice production will mean that more people will slip into poverty and hunger. Up to a point, higher daytime temperatures can increase rice yields. Still, future yield losses caused by higher nighttime temperatures will outweigh any such gains because temperatures are rising faster at night. And, if daytime temperatures get too high, they too start to restrict rice yields, causing an additional loss in production. If we cannot change our rice production methods or develop new rice strains that can withstand higher temperatures, there will be a loss in rice production over the next few decades as days and nights get hotter. Many physiological processes are having optimum temperature ranges and climate change does result in getting over the top of these optima into areas where assimilates, so yields, diminish. The actual temperatures where this happens differ with varieties, but even the most heat-tolerant varieties will in the end get into situations of diminishing returns. This will only worsen as temperatures rise further towards the middle of the century [4].

The above-summarized work by researchers from the United States, the Philippines and the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) looked at the impact of rising daily minimum and maximum temperatures on irrigated rice production from 1994 through1999. It was pooling 227 fields in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam [5]. Global warming threatens rice production throughout the tropics and crop diversification is one of the measures that may yield early results because new, more heat-tolerant varieties will take a lot of time to develop, if at all possible [3, 6]. Actually it is not extreme events that matter much but the long-term trends that influence physiological processes over longer periods of growth beyond the range of optimal temperatures for growing a certain variety. Minimum night temperatures changing in the order of 2 to 4 degrees will reduce paddy rice yields substantially for the present varieties, and rainfed rice can stand even less. Farmers in the lowland tropics of Indonesia must inform BMKG, the National Climate and Weather Services, of their interest in changing temperatures, averages, night minima and daily maxima over various periods of the growing season.

II.B. Increasing climate variability

One recommendation of a review of the successful agrometeorological pilot projects on operational meteorological assistance to rural areas in Mali, West Africa, over the past decades, was to continue the promotion of farmer rain gauges for each and every farmer [7]. Since 2007, we have been running and working to establish programs in Yogyakarta and West Java, Indonesia, to stimulate local farmers to take daily measurements of rainfall in their own plots[8]. However, this has never been a goal in itself, and should serve other purposes in a rural response to climate change.

Organizing daily measurements of rainfall by farmers may be the start of improving Climate Field Schools (CFSs). (See also further below.) Another reason for advocating rainfall measurements by farmers is that official data are very often not of much use, due to high differences in rainfall over relatively small distances. This means, that for each plot, actual increasing variability and more severe extreme events may work out differently in practice in each rainy season. Farmers’ data already show this clearly. Not what climate change brings, but how it brings it, will differ in its implications for local water balances and other water-related consequences. Official data are often deficient, and what exists is not made available free of charge, even for comparisons [8]. Climate change makes it even more necessary to do such measurements.

Farmers all over the world are reporting both the timing of rainy seasons and the patterns of rains within seasons are changing [9]. Generally, farmers have always responded to climatic variability, particularly to changes in rainfall, by adapting their practices throughout the season. This involves adapting their choices of crops, crop varieties, planting and other cultural measures, while at the same time managing and manipulating the soil, water and microclimate where possible. Climate change and its consequences as dealt with complicate this so-called “response farming,” but it does not change the principles of the approach [2, 10, 11]. Of course, the change in average climatic conditions is a relatively small drift compared with the increasing inter- and intra-annual variabilities, but may become devastating too, even if only gradually. In this context, daily on-farm rainfall measurements also help farmers to understand differences in their crop growth. The exercise may assist farmers in organizing better in other matters of common interest, such as supporting farmer meaningful agrometeorological preparedness and learning regarding consequences of increasing climate variability and change [9, 12, 13].

Overall, in Wareng/Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta Special Province, the farmers had an interesting learning experience. A combination of unexpected weather conditions, precise knowledge of the rainfall numerical analysis, and the direct impacts of related events on plants and fields, while also referring to their traditional knowledge made little sense in practice without any timely information officially provided to the farmers by state agencies that this part of 2008 and 2009 was a La Niña season. Farmers learned they would better anticipate similar future weather conditions, provided they would be systematically informed through reliable seasonal climate predictions [14]. Just as weather forecasts break down after four to five days and become mostly unreliable, seasonal climate predictions presently are given three times monthly but are renewed monthly. Reliabilities also here become quickly corrupted by large scale oceanic surface temperature and partly therefore atmospheric developments, disturbances and distortions, mainly due to the chaotic characteristics of ocean currents and atmospheric flows [14, 15].

II.C. More (and more severe) climate extremes

In March 2010, farmers in Indramayu asked us what we expected to happen, and whether the end of the rainy season could be any better than its disastrous very late start in December. From the NOAA ensemble predictions review [15], we indicated this to be very unlikely, but that the present developments were quite uncertain. That was, of course, of little help. Moreover, it was discovered as late as June that the forecasts in these months were all wrong.

Also BMKG was completely wrong about the usual end of the main rainy season of 2009 and 2010. They predicted for some areas an early dry season, between late March and May, with most areas likely to have a normal dry season in June. But the rains continued. Only at the end of May did BMKG start to warn for heavy rains and to blame these anomalies and unpredictabilities on global warming, even though it was a La Niña causing the problems [14].

We would never have been able to forecast what happened in the usually dry but now abundantly wet “dry” season in Indonesia in 2010, using the NOAA or other available predictions. Farmers remain confused, together with the scholars and the forecasters, in case of such rare fast changes from El Nino to La Niña [14]. On its own, this was not an extreme condition but an extremely fast change at an odd moment during the usual beginning of the dry season. However, such confusions are happening more and more [e.g. 16]. It may be expected that such capricious behavior, that may then develop into more prolonged and intensified droughts [17, 18] and floods [19, 20], will occur more often, together with the related confusions.

In a Table in [21], one can find what farmers, in most cases our farmers in Indonesia, actually may expect from projected likely, very likely or virtually certain changes in extreme events and associated effects. It must be realized that farmers in Asia and elsewhere will not be able to cope with the higher numbers of climate extremes further climate change is expected to bring, even apart from the fact these extremes may be also more serious than before. A completely new approach is needed (e.g. [19]) because farmers need better seasonal climate predictions and other early warnings. This paper ends with discussing such an approach in Section III.

II.D. Contributions from agriculture in diminishing greenhouse gases

The following was derived from [22]. Yansen argued in [23] that “our participation in nature based solutions for climate mitigation and adaptation is the right pathway to follow. (……) The development from REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) to REDD plus is a good sign of the changing paradigm on the plan itself. REDD plus does not just view natural forests as carbon stock, but far more importantly, as natural ecosystem service resources. (…..) Thus, a plan such as REDD plus not only gives us a chance to contribute to global warming mitigation, but also plays a significant role in conserving the tropical ecosystem itself.”

We are convinced that another additional step has to be taken in this reasoning, making use of agroforestry. By applying agroforestry we are mimicking nature, particularly some classical traditional tropical ecosystems (e.g. [10]). We have to go a next step to REDD plus plus, creating and mimicking in agricultural production such tropical ecosystems that not only sequester carbon dioxide, but at the same time considerably improve the agricultural environment by the massive use of trees, raising and nursing them in a participatory approach in the often degraded agricultural environment. This is at the same time an adaptation strategy to climate change [24, 25, 26]. The proposal must be seen as massive reforestation of areas where natural vegetation was slashed away in the green revolution that is generally considered worth the efforts as to the carbon sequestration concerned if such plantings are protected from other than age related clearing and renewals [22].

Agroforestry helps maintain ecological balances by also providing indirect benefits such as soil and water conservation and improved soil fertility [25], as well as improved microclimate conditions [27], and may therefore also play a key role in ecological restoration and poverty alleviation [28].

We need a REDD plus plus approach in which all the forest products are developed on agricultural lands. It implies that we develop timber, firewood and charcoal, meat and milk, minor forest products and medicinal plants all from the farm sector. Such a REDD plus plus system is a Tree, Crop, Livestock Joint Production System (TCLJPS) of agroforestry. TCLJPS is nothing new in the Indian context. This practice was vogue for centuries prior to the green revolution and we need to bring it back in the changed context. Indeed, TCLJPS agroforestry makes sense as a key instrument in fostering the REDD and REDD plus. As REDD plus plus, this helps us in recasting “farming as forestry by other means.” [22]

A certification system will be tried where the amount of sequestrated carbon is calculated and thus can be sold to people or companies and institutions in developed countries. In this manner it is intended to attract increased and stable funding to support the program, while also strengthening awareness of the importance of supporting developing countries in their adaptation to climate change [29]. Indonesia has to consider increasing tree plantings too, also in and near rice fields.

(II) III. OUR TRIAL APPROACH TO GENERATE AND SUPPORT A RURAL RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: FROM SCIENCE FIELD SHOPS TO IMPROVED CLIMATE FIELD SCHOOLS

Research on agrarian adaptation to climate change and variability needs a greater emphasis on farmers’ creative adaptive capacities and socio-cultural institutions [30]. Response farming in combating disasters does exist [31] and even more so in multiple cropping [32]. For scientists, the purpose remains to increase, with the farmers as decision makers, the awareness on potential climate and climate change-related hazards and their mitigation [31], with additional advantages of reduced vulnerabilities from multiple cropping and related cultural measures [32].

III.A Science/Climate Field Shops

We already noted the virtual absence of extension officers trained in what is needed under conditions of a changing climate. Given this situation, we have developed what we have called Climate Field Shops, when only weather and climate issues are discussed, and Science Field Shops, with a wider agricultural reach, meetings between scholars and farmers.

It is our experience over the past few years that the most useful and convincing preparedness sessions between farmers and scholars are those in which we are not only talking about rainfall measurements results and the related observations of crops and soil, but also taking ample time to explain the background of climate change and its consequences in terms that people can understand. We also discuss questions on these and other issues of their agricultural environment. Basically, we define such “Climate/Science Field Shops” as meetings in which scholars answer questions on vulnerabilities expressed by farmers. And where necessary, they follow this up at their institutes with supportive research and teaching to and with their students [14].

The idea was based on Dutch so called “Law Shops,” where defenceless people can consult lawyers free of charge about their rights and how to defend them. This gives lawyers and law students the opportunity to see and discuss where ordinary people got stuck in the process and what is needed to get them their rights. Both sides learn from this procedure [14].

Ideally, scholars and students should join to provide an initial overview of answers to vulnerability issues and questions of farmers. Such initial answers should then be discussed with the farmers as to what the possibilities, choices and options are available in solving their problems and how they see them from their realities. Through farmer research, they may find their own solutions, but a dialogue with scholars is advisable. Measurements and quantification leading to cause and effect relationships are what science has to offer to empirical answers sought or found by farmers (e.g. [10]). This must be considered an effective way to connect applied scientists and students with actual problem solving in rural areas and to prepare future Climate/Farmer Field Schools on these vulnerabilities [33].

Exposure to climate change is a farmer vulnerability issue. Mitigation of its consequences and adaptation to increasing climate variability and change must be seen as a rural response in which scholars can assist. We use Roving Seminars in agrometeorology to start to induce such understanding [34, 35]. We are convinced that Climate Field Shop or Science Field Shop sessions are suitable to get material for improved curricula of Climate Field Schools. We believe Climate Field Schools should not have fixed curricula, but a curriculum that is created with the farmers.

However, this definitely asks for well-trained extension intermediaries who should, over time, take over most of the tasks of the scholars. The latter should only be used for training and back-up. In our view, there is a sincere need for two kinds of extension intermediaries [10, 35, 36]. They were described for agrometeorology, but the same applies to many other fields, such as agrohydrology, agroecosystems, pests and diseases.

The first type of intermediary should be part of the extension department of the national weather services, agricultural faculties or universities and agricultural research institutes in under-industrialized countries. They should have two main tasks:

- Make products of their institutes more client-friendly and useful for farmers. In industry, products are made useful and attractive to clients, because competition determines sales. Why are products in science and technology from the above mentioned institutions not made more client friendly and attractive to be applied?

- Take care of training of trainers (TOT) for FFSs/CFSs by their institutes.

They should themselves be trained in service by their institutes. Members of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) could take part in this training as trainers or trainees.

The second type of intermediary, the trainers trained above by the first type, should replace the presently failing or already disbanded extension services. They should be the ones doing the FFSs/CFSs, throughout the growing season(s), with the farmers. Members of NGOs could be part of this picture if and when trained the same way.

It is very important to think about the kind of training both types of extension intermediaries need. In [10], and already earlier approved and taken over in [36], syllabi have been proposed for discussion and trial purposes, that could be used in such trainings. In the ultimate rural response to climate change, this support from well-trained extension intermediaries is crucial if we want an institutionalized attempt to face the consequences of climate change in a real rural response.

(II) IV. CLOSING REMARKS

What we described will require a long process. Experimenting with Climate/Science Field Shops and publicizing their results are the initial phases. However, Asian agrometeorologists and other agricultural scientists, and the institutes where they work, will, together with already convinced funding organizations in the field of climate compatible development (e.g. [37]), see the importance and necessity of this educational approach. They will work with anthropologists to give more body to these collaborative learning processes with the farmers that need our support so badly [38].

References

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¹ Visiting professor in developing countries, Agromet Vision, Bondowoso (Indonesia) and Bruchem (Netherlands) (cjstigter@usa.net)
² Academy Professorship Indonesia & Professor of Anthropology, Department of Anthropology, Faculty of Social & Political Sciences, KNAW-AIPI, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia (yunitatw@ui.ac.id)

A farmer ploughs through hardened soil on a rain-dependent rice field in a rural Ciampea, a district West of Bogor regency. Photo by Danumurthi Mahendra.

After an introduction from recent literature on how climate change influences the livelihood of rural people, we discuss and illustrate what climate change really means for farmers in Asia, including global warming, increasing climate variability, more and more severe climate extremes, and contributions from agriculture in diminishing greenhouse gases.

(I) I. INTRODUCTION

Vulnerable communities across the world are already feeling the effects of a changing climate. These communities are urgently in need of assistance aimed at building resilience, and at undertaking climate change adaptation efforts as a matter of survival and in order to maintain livelihoods (e.g. [1, 2]). They are in need of an urgent rural response to climate change. The reality of climate change calls for a need to understand how it might affect a range of natural and social systems, and to identify and evaluate options to respond to these effects (e.g. [3]). This should lead to an in-depth investigation of vulnerabilities and adaptations to climate change, which have become central to climate science, policy and practice. The capacity, however, to conduct vulnerability and adaptation assessments is still limited [4].

For example, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society [5] indicates to use a science-based approach to enhance society’s capability to understand, anticipate and cope with the impacts of climate in order to improve human welfare and the environment. We want to extend this approach to the rural communities of Indonesia and elsewhere in Asia. The basis of our approach is listening to concerned farmers to better understand their vulnerabilities and needs the way they see them. In a “farmer first” paradigm, or a participatory approach, we will be able to generate support with them and for them in facing the consequences of increased climate variability and climate change in their livelihoods [6].

However, applied scientists cannot do that alone[7]. They should be the connection between applied science and the actual production environment. To that end, they in fact would be most useful to back up well-educated extension intermediaries. The latter must train, on an almost daily basis, farmers, farmer facilitators and ultimately farmer trainers and farmer communities. Unfortunately, extension services are often absent. Where they still do exist, they are poorly trained and have received little or no upgrading about the fast changes occurring in the agricultural production environment, and about the actual crises in the livelihood of farmers [8].

For an agricultural economy, astronomical knowledge as a regulator of the agricultural calendar was of prime importance [9]. He who could give a calendar to the people would become their leader. More specifically, this was true for an agricultural economy that depended so largely upon artificial irrigation. It was necessary to be forewarned (…) of the beginning of the rainy monsoon season [9]. These remarks were valid for several millennia in China and also apply for example to India and Indonesia, to rain fed and irrigated agriculture. Farmers, supported by scientists, still use such astronomical approaches of the rainy season (e.g. [10, 11, 12]). However, it must be sorted out how well such approaches can still hold, or can be adapted under the present conditions of a changing climate, in comparison to a response farming approach [13, 14].

We have indeed encouraged some of the farmers we work with in Indonesia, a majority of whom are older, that still believe in possibilities to try to adapt their local cosmology (pranata mangsa) to new conditions. They better find out for themselves the new limits of this traditional approach. We can help, for example, using simple climate predictions as these days they are generally available (e.g. [15]). Traditional knowledge and indigenous technologies should always be taken seriously and they should always be tried out in a participatory approach to find new limitations under changing conditions [4, 16]. Conducting local experiments together is also often a good way to create a rapport with the local farmers, and to come together to compare traditional and modern scientific approaches [6].

As financing for climate change adaptation in developing countries begins to flow, it is essential the governance of funding at the global and country level be shaped so the needs of the most vulnerable can be met [2]. The core issue is country-level ownership of adaptation finance. Providers of adaptation finance must put developing countries in the driver’s seat, while the countries themselves must exercise leadership and respond to the needs of those most affected by climate change. Most importantly, civil society and vulnerable communities must be able to steer and hold accountable the way in which adaptation finance is used [2]. The latter issue is even more important in Indonesia, the most corrupt country of Asia, at the levels of central and local authorities.

While it is relatively easy to define technical messages that can be communicated, we have to look beyond “adaptation to current climate variability” and target the basic vulnerability factors of communities.

Communication aims also at improving the learning process, and creates capacity to cope with climate variability [17]. Measuring rainfall and observing the agronomical consequences by farmers in their plots have been a great start for such communications.

In this introduction we have brought up some points that guided our work with farmers in Indonesia. Below, we will start to exemplify what the most important consequences Indonesian and other Asian farmers face because of increasing climate variability and climate change. In a second paper we will discuss our initial approach to make farmers more aware of what is happening around them on a daily basis, and also our initial attempts to answer their many questions related to these issues.

(I) II. CLIMATE CHANGE, WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR ASIAN FARMERS?

The discussion of whether climate change exists does not need to be taken up here as the evidence is rather clear (see below), and the discussion on the causes of climate change is mostly irrelevant for those suffering the consequences. Even if we were able to reduce apparent sources of climate change, or find other geophysical ways to reduce global warming, it would continue to take place and only at a reduced speed.

The problem we face is the experts on climate variability and climate change do not really know what information the grassroots need in the short- and medium-term [13, 19], and the people working with vulnerable communities do not know what science is available [19]. The main issue we cannot leave out here regarding what the agricultural sector could do to mitigate climate change, in a win-win situation, is that of large scale agroforestry with food security components [20, 21].

Let’s first look at the main issues behind a changing climate for Asian farmers, and at some of the consequences.

II.A. Global warming

Many tropical regions in Africa, Asia and South America could see the permanent emergence of unprecedented heat in the next two decades. According to projections, large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest warmer seasons will be hotter than the hottest seasons of the past 50 years [22]. Historical data from weather stations around the world was also analyzed to see if the projected emergence of unprecedented heat had already begun. When we look back at temperature records, we find extreme heat emergence is already occurring, and that climate models represent the historical patterns remarkably well [22]. This dramatic shift in seasonal temperatures could have severe consequences for human health, agricultural production and ecosystem productivity.

Below we will come back to consequences of temperatures too high for rice production in Asia. Here, we want to note only that part of the poverty-alleviation rationale for participatory rice research is that improved rice production will give farmers greater flexibility in their use of land and labor. This outcome would be made possible by varieties that yield better, mature earlier, or tolerate drought and much more difficult heat, or by the new System of Rice Intensification, or SRI [23, 24]. This, in turn, will allow them to more easily diversify into higher-value crops without completely losing the food security provided by rice. The economic arguments for the diversification of agricultural production in Indonesia are now joined by climatological arguments [25].

II.B. Increasing climate variability

Agricultural production in Indonesia is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of precipitation and year-to-year variations in the annual cycle caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The combined forces of ENSO and global warming are likely to have dramatic, and currently unforeseen, effects on agriculture production and food security in Indonesia and other tropical countries [26]. To date, climate models have been developed with little knowledge of agricultural systems dynamics; while agricultural policy analysis has been conducted with little knowledge of climate dynamics. Integration proposed of what we know of climate dynamics and has been collected in agricultural systems models will permit an assessment of climate-related uncertainty associated with global warming and ENSO dynamics. In such integration, detailed crop dynamics models can be run with climate model forcing (e.g. [27, 28]). This integration ultimately will also demonstrate how the treatment of uncertainty affects the choice and consequences of agricultural policies [26].

During El Niño events, Indonesia’s production of rice, the country’s primary food staple, is affected in two important ways: First, delayed rainfall causes the rice crop to be planted later in the monsoon season, thus extending the ‘‘hungry season’’ (paceklik, the season of scarcity) before the main rice harvest; and second, delayed planting of the main wet-season crop may not be compensated by increased planting later in the crop year, leaving Indonesia with a reduced rice area and a larger-than-normal annual rice deficit [29]. The ENSO actually can swing beyond the “normal” state to a state opposite that of El Niño, with the trade winds amplified and the eastern Pacific colder than normal. This phenomenon is often referred to as La Niña. In a La Niña year, or when a La Niña period occurs, many Asian regions inclined toward drought during an El Niño, such as Indonesia, are instead prone to more rain.

Both El Niños and La Niñas vary in intensity from weak to strong. The intervals at which El Niños return are not exactly regular, but have historically varied from two to seven years. Now, an El Niño can subside into a “normal” pattern. At other times it gives way to a La Niña. In many ways, the ENSO cold phase is simply the opposite of the warm phase. This often holds true also for the climate impacts of the two. El Niño, or warm phase, tends to bring drought to countries like Indonesia and Australia, at the west end of the Pacific, while La Niña, or cold phase, tends to bring more rain than normal [30]. Now, it appears the frequency of these phenomena, and how they follow each other, has changed in recent times. However, we are not able to simulate these actual changes with the models that summarize our understanding, which at this moment is still very insufficient [31].

As a direct consequence of this capricious behavior of climate in Indonesia, the adaptation of Indonesian farmers has lagged behind enormously [32, 33]. Still, there are other reasons Indonesian farmers have been slow to adapt. First, the Integrated Pest Management Farmer Field Schools (IPM FFSs) experiments, started in Indonesia at the very end of the eighties to eradicate particularly Brown Plant Hopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål) epidemics, were never sufficiently institutionalized and remained of too small a size and depth to cause much community scale absorption of the technology. The weakness of this capability in most farming communities is itself an important problem; one which has often been exacerbated by earlier agricultural development programs that fostered a dependency on external sources of expertise [34]. Some experts claim the principles of IPM are too complex for small farmers to master [34], and this may be one of the reasons the movement slowly decayed and was not able to prevent new serious BPH epidemics such as in 1998-1999 and 2010-2011 [35]. Another serious reason Indonesian farmers are lagging is the persisting government policy to achieve high productivity, and to allow the prophylactic use of pesticides to continue, supported by intensive chemical promotion strategies by corporations in Indonesia. The second issue is the apparent failure of the presently relatively large-scale Climate Field Schools approach in Indonesia, including the absence of any systematical use of seasonal climate predictions by farmers [33, 36].

II. C. More (and more severe) climate extremes

Environmental catastrophes and the forces of nature they unleash are something to behold, fear and respect [37]. The kind of havoc they cause to the lives of mankind and the planet as a whole are nothing new. But the ferocity, frequency and magnitude of such extreme weather conditions seem to be on the rise in the last few decades, and are gathering speed with each passing year. Alone, these incidents seem to be just another environmental disaster, having local or countrywide consequences, but when one takes in the big picture, the enormity of it all hits, and they appear downright frightening [37] [Fig. 1].

China is a case in point. Weather took an about-turn in China in the first week of June 2011, when, only a week after the northern provinces faced the worst drought in the last 60 years, the central and southwest regions of China were hit by heavy flooding triggered by excessive and continuous torrential rains. Ironically, while the deadly flooding continued, a persistent drought was still plaguing five provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Though floods are annual events in these areas of China, the extent to which these 2011 floods hit and affected people had not been witnessed in the last 20 years [37]. In such a huge country, newspapers report on damages from severe weather and climate on a daily basis. Even covered cropping systems in China suffer from various disasters [38]. In Indonesia, the newspapers report almost daily on landslides and their victims, the landslides always due to heavy rainfall. Agroforestry may have a protective function, as it was already used traditionally in the tropics [39].

Fig. 1. Prof. Kees Stigter lecturing in Iran on “Coping with Disasters” which, will have to be done even more intensively under a changing climate (Photo Dr. Mohammad Asadi, Gorgan, Iran).

Farmer organizations in Indonesia are blaming the local and central governments for being too slow in educating farmers on how to adapt to extreme weather shifts. We should generate and support a rural response to climate change.

II.D. Contributions from agriculture in diminishing greenhouse gases

Stigter summarized this subject [42] partly as follows: The total Green House Gas (GHG) emission from agriculture was estimated to increase globally by about 50 percent from 2000 to 2030. Early in this period, agricultural expansion was by far the leading cause at a global scale, whether through forest conversion for permanent cropping, cattle ranching, shifting cultivation or colonization agriculture. Most prominent underlying causes of deforestation and degradation are economic factors, weak institutions and inadequate national policies. Mitigation techniques such as improved feed quality, improved manure management, improved fertilizer use and greater applied nitrogen efficiency, as well as improved water management in rice paddies, all have to be considered in order to minimize the impact of agriculture on climate in win-win situations. We mention here only such win-win situations because it seems unfair to overly pressure farmers to compensate for the larger sources in the same country.

The agricultural sector was once a major contributor to GHG emissions, but it has been superseded by the energy and transportation sectors, also in Indonesia [43]. However, all sectors have a role to play, and all must be mobilized in the collective efforts to mitigate global climate change. Significantly, agriculture has an important role because of the large land areas involved, and because there are already many available technologies and opportunities in agriculture to contribute to the global mitigation effort, many of which can be implemented with minimal or no cost. Soil carbon sequestration has a higher mitigation potential than emission reductions in agriculture, although both are important. These are best achieved under management systems with higher carbon density, as well as improved soil conservation [42, 44]. Of course, in Indonesia the contributions to emissions of land use change and forestry together with peat fires are much more important than all other sources of emissions together [43], and it is here that serious changes have to be made.

The lack of an effective carbon price is currently one of the most significant detriments to collective global action. There are some strong trends in the expansion of global carbon trading, and some initiatives to promote carbon taxes. These are positive, since ultimately they will promote a realistic price on carbon. However, some key constraints still need to be overcome, namely how to mobilize the large and highly diverse global farm populations, and how to certify sequestered carbon and GHG emission reductions given the high variability inherent in agricultural production environments.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) rules should encourage the participation of small farmers and community forest and agroforestry producers. Such rules should protect against major livelihood risks, while still meeting investor needs and rigorously ensured carbon offset goals. Agroforestry, assisted natural regeneration, forest rehabilitation, forest gardens, and improved forest fallow projects should all be eligible under CDM [20] because they offer low-cost approaches to carbon sequestration, while offering fewer social risks and significant community and biodiversity benefits. Short-duration tree growing activities should be permitted, with suitable discounting. Unfairly favoring large plantations should be avoided. The successful promotion of livelihood enhancing CDM sequestration projects will require investment in capacity-building and advisory services for potential investors, project designers and managers, national policy makers, and leaders of local organizations and federations [20, 42].

(I) III. CLOSING REMARKS

Above we summarized what climate change means for farmers in Asia, particularly in Indonesia. In a companion paper we will report on our work in Indonesia to try to build from the bottom up a rural response to climate change. In practice, particularly for Indonesia, this means a response to global warming and the related changing ENSO frequencies and occurrences. The approach started with meetings to answer farmers’ questions on climate change and its consequences and it proceeded with advocating and guiding simple field measurements by farmers in their plots, and increased observations and analyses of their agro-ecosystems [33]. We advocate for this approach to be used elsewhere in Asia.

References

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[21] K. Stigter, S. Walker, H.P. Das, S. Huda, Zheng Dawei, Liu Jing, Li Chunqiang, I.M. Dominguez-Hurtado, A.E. Mohammed, A.T. Abdalla, N.I. Bakheit, N.K.N. Al-Amin, Wei Yurong, J.M. Kinama, D. Nanja and P.D. Haasbroek. (2010, June). Meeting farmers’ needs for agrometeorological services: an overview and case studies. Paper presented at the WMO/CAgM Workshop “Addressing the livelihood crisis of farmers: weather and climate services”. Belo Horizonte, Brazil. [Online]. Available: www.cmp.vcl.cu/…/fc9a911af18abaa5d0512cf015a3217ab3f59544.pdf

[22] D. Hesterman. (2011, June). Climate study: Permanently hotter summers predicted in 20 Years. [Online] Available: http://www.thinktosustain.com/infocusdetails.aspx?id=%20194&utm_source=NL10&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CL

[23] A. Kassam, W. Stoop and N. Uphoff, “Review of SRI modifications in rice crop and water management and research issues for making further improvements in agricultural and water productivity,” Paddy Water Environ., vol 9, pp. 163–180, Mar. 2011.

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[26] W.P. Falcon, R.L. Naylor, M.D. Mastrandrea, D. S. Batisti, D. Vimont and M. Burke (2011, undated). Agricultural decision-making in Indonesia with ENSO variability: Integrating climate science, risk assessment, and policy analysis. Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. [Online]. Available: http://cddrl.stanford.edu/research/agricultural_decisionmaking_in_indonesia_with_enso_variability_integrating_climate_science_risk_assessment_and_policy_analysis/

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Photo from workshop. Courtesy of author.

The 1st OBSERVE CARAVAN workshop took place March 1 in Sofia, Bulgaria. The concept was simple: For an effective technology transfer, you must visit the audience at their location rather than transporting them to scientific and professional events.

Fifty-eight participants arrived from 15 countries, including professionals from the private and public sectors alike, as well as administration officials, press, academicians and students.

All the presented material is freely available at http://www.observe-fp7.eu/. The next CARAVAN will take place May 17 in Belgrade, Serbia.

1. The CARAVAN concept and goals

Following the ISPRS tradition, the OBSERVE project fulfilled the first CARAVAN workshop in the Balkan countries.

The CARAVAN knowledge-transfer concepts are simple:

• Visit the audience at their location rather than transporting them to scientific and professional events;
• Focus on topics that are of interest to the region or the host country, and aim directly to meet with local demands and needs;
• Build on CARAVAN events to support cooperation between individuals, institutions and countries within the region.

The goals were:

• Support capacity building through knowledge transfer;
• Amplify the voice and elevate the status of local scientists, professionals, managers and officials who are dealing with EO and other spatial information;
• Increase the awareness of the private, public and governmental communities, officials and decision-makers to EO;
• Further the cooperation between individuals, institutions and countries within the Balkan region in particular, and outside the region as well.

2. The 1st OBSERVE CARAVAN

This 1st CARAVAN workshop took place March 1, in Sofia, Bulgaria. It was divided into three major sessions. The 58 participants arrived from 15 countries, and included professionals from both the private and public sectors, as well as administration officials, press, academicians and students. Speakers praised the fact that local government representatives were present.

During the first session, P. Patias, M. Baltsavias and M. Konecny dealt with:

• The OBSERVE project, its aims, activities and the major outcomes up to date;
• The International “Geo” scientific societies and their EO role and activities in the global arena;
• The International institutes and horizontal research cooperation as expressed in the field of crisis management with EO support.

This first session was informative in terms of the general picture of the OBSERVE project, in particular EO. Presented were EO International and European structures, research innovations and policy-making bodies. All these constitute important reference information for the involved participants. Usually, this is the kind of information one can rarely access from a single source.

Photo from workshop. Courtesy of author.

This session focused on technology and activities mainly in European countries. Whenever possible, special reference and relevance were given to the Balkan region. Outlook of the available technology and low or no-cost open source tools also were pointed out at the end of the review.

Disaster management was shown in the context of an application area of horizontal importance, but with relevance to local action. The importance of EO input for such cases was advocated and emphasized. Also, the importance of cooperation within national activities, as much as in regional and international cooperation, was mentioned as one of the best practices the participants may preserve.

During the third session, R. Vatseva, A. Frantsova, N. Zafirov, Ch. Georgiadis and Z. Gospavic dealt with case studies and success stories already realized in Balkan countries. Cases of Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece were presented.

This session focused more on a local level, and showcased EO “success experiences” at the country and national level. Also evident were the wide range of possible application areas and the local capacity of being an “EO player.” Information flow and knowledge transfer were the main points of the final round table session. It was postulated that cooperation would be impossible unless information, such as was presented and discussed in the CARAVAN will be available to local EO users and added value providers. Participants coming from other European countries that seem to be more advanced in these matters contributed also with their experiences.

3. The experience

The 1st OBSERVE CARAVAN seems to be a good benchmark as it opened all the participants, including the OBSERVE partners, to additional EO activities in Bulgaria and the Balkan region, not known to us before. We should hope this start would serve as an incentive to continue with more CARAVAN efforts.

All the presented material, including videos and presentation files, are freely available from the OBSERVE website. After the success of the first benchmark event in Sofia, the next OBSERVE CARAVAN will take place May 17 in Belgrade, Serbia.

Petros Patias, OBSERVE coordinator, is a professor and ex-chairman at the School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, The Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, board member of the Department of Urban Planning, and Vice Rector at the University of Western Macedonia, Greece. His published work includes six books, four chapters in international books and 161 papers in journals and proceedings.

See also

An Introduction to OBSERVE, Strengthening and development of Earth Observation activities for the environment in the Balkan area.

A Post-GEO Plenary Workshop on Earth Observations for the Social Benefit of the Balkans

New Journal on South-Eastern European Earth Observation and Geomatics

Katelyn accepting an award on behalf of her team for placing first in the Communications Contest at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Decathlon. Courtesy SmartPower.

Becoming America’s Next Eco-Star is a huge honor and one I intend to use to help turn my passion for the environment into a mainstream concern.

I’m so happy that SmartPower, the nonprofit organization that partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy to launch the competition, thought to recognize all the Eco-Stars out there who are leading sustainability initiatives at their schools and in their communities.

Ever since high school and especially since attending Middlebury College, I’ve been extremely active in energy and environmental issues. I was a campus sustainability leader, founding Sprout, a Middlebury student group dedicated to promoting environmental education in local schools, and a U.S. Green Building Council student chapter at Middlebury.

I was first introduced to SmartPower via Twitter when Middlebury’s Solar Decathlon team, for which I directed the crew’s communication efforts, won SmartPower’s Social Media Energy Quiz. My team and I correctly answered the most energy questions from our Solar Decathlon Twitter account: @MiddSD. SmartPower presented a gift basket to us on the last day of the Decathlon as we accepted another award for coming in first place in the Solar Decathlon’s Communications Contest. It was so exciting to see the energy and enthusiasm that my teammates and other young people have for communicating issues of sustainability, and to be recognized for it.

And still, a recent New York Times story laments the fact that today’s college students aren’t as engaged in the environment as was initially believed. The report says that college kids today are marking a steady decline in concern about the environment and taking little action to help it. I was shocked.

But I have a goal to change this. As America’s Next Eco-Star, I intend to make it my personal duty to bring young people back into the environmental equation.

Our job is to take the cause and the message of the environment and make it mainstream. We need to make clean energy and energy efficiency just as popular as March Madness. We need to make the solutions as simple as downloading an app.

When we can bring energy and environmental action to the forefront of people’s minds, then we can create a wave of action unlike anything we’ve seen before. I intend to lead my generation to a more sustainable future so that we, our families and our planet, have a cleaner, greener future.

Photo: Gandee Vasan/Getty Images

The reason is that not everyone uses the same coordinate system, and maps cannot simultaneously display data with mixed coordinates. But this is just one of the problems faced by research groups, which are usually happy to share the information they collect to advance the development of knowledge. Each group may also use its own native language, scientific terms, and technical protocols, as well as those geographic coordinates. The result: It may take weeks to sift through conflicting information to build a model that simulates a drought, for example.

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is being developed to overcome such incompatibilities. This Earth-monitoring network brings together data gathered by thousands of sensors, buoys, weather stations, and satellites on conditions across the land, water, and atmosphere. GEOSS is supported by all the major industrialized nations and many scientific organizations, including IEEE through its Committee on Earth Observation.

The European Commission is one of the leading players in the development of GEOSS and supports it through several research projects. One such project is EuroGEOSS, which allows scientists and funding agencies to access information from a variety of shared infrastructures without having to install special software or learn new applications—and to do it via the Web.

“The EuroGEOSS program will change the paradigm of how information is treated and shared,” says IEEE Fellow Jay Pearlman, former chair of the IEEE Committee on Earth Observation. “What used to take weeks to model will now be done in hours using tools and data accessed through the Web. For example, if you are part of a group working in Europe and must travel to Africa, you don’t have to bring all your files with you. You simply go to the Web in Africa and carry out the same processes as you would in Europe.”

Organizations making use of EuroGEOSS developments include the Global Biodiversity Information Facility Secretariat, NASA, and the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization.

DATA BROKERS

EuroGEOSS builds on the achievements of the Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe (INSPIRE), a European directive providing the legal framework, technical guidelines, and specifications for shared data infrastructures that deal with environmental issues. The legislation requires all 27 nations of the European Union to “ensure that the spatial data infrastructures of the member states are compatible and usable in a community and transboundary context.”

Established in 2009, EuroGEOSS will lift INSPIRE to the next level of data sharing, according to Max Craglia, technical coordinator of EuroGEOSS and a senior scientist in the unit of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre that is responsible for INSPIRE’s technical development.

With EuroGEOSS, scientists can access information from anywhere via the Internet to model, for example, changing environmental conditions such as variations in the water color of these lakes in the Rift Valley of Central Africa. Photo: NASA

The brokering approach is composed of five parts. The discovery broker searches across multiple shared infrastructures based on key words, time, and geography. The semantic broker translates nomenclature based on concepts that are related to each other but may come from different science or engineering disciplines, for example. The Web 2.0 broker searches across social networks for resources.

The access broker allows the user to retrieve information, and it can convert data sets so the results have the same coordinate reference systems, which are used to locate geographic entities and time-reference information. And the publishing broker publishes and documents new data sets that might be products or analyses.

“EuroGEOSS recognized that the diversity of scientific and technology practices across the research communities made it impossible to impose a single solution for interoperability,” Craglia says. “With our brokering approach, users and data providers are not asked to implement any specific interoperability technology but to continue using their own tools and publish their results according to their own standards.

“We are trying to create an environment in which scientists in different specialties can collaborate with a shared perspective to address different chunks of the same environmental problem,” he continues. “By making the process more open and available on the Web, potentially millions of people can use it and understand the science better.”

Says Pearlman, “EuroGEOSS is not seen as a global repository since it does not store data. Its benefits are in its ability to access global, national, and even local data repositories from many disciplines and bring them together in a coherent way for government, professional, and citizen users. The repositories themselves indicate the coordinates they use. With the broker taking on the burden of translating the data, we are not asking anyone to do extra work.”

An international collaboration created the EuroGEOSS brokers. More than 20 partners helped develop them, including Italy’s National Research Council, the European Union’s Joint Research Centre, France’s Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, the Universitat Jaume I in Spain, and the University of Nottingham, England.

The Italian National Research Council, which is the main partner behind the development of the broker, has committed resources to sustain its development until 2015. The institutional commitment makes it possible to include the brokering framework in the GEOSS common infrastructure.

OTHER AREAS

EuroGEOSS has zeroed in on linking forestry, drought, and biodiversity systems. “By focusing on specific areas, EuroGEOSS can create a template with linkages across multiple systems and enable them to work together as one—not only in accessing data but also in providing models, forecasts, and possible scenarios,” Craglia says. “And once these templates are complete, it will be possible to apply their models to other areas.” This is already happening, for example, in the areas of weather, ocean ecosystems, and water runoff in the GEOWOW project that was launched last September for a three-year period.

“One of the challenges facing humanity in the 21st century,” Pearlman says, “is the ability to understand complex relationships between environment and society and to communicate these complexities to the public and decision makers, who will be able to make better decisions because information will be more comprehensive and accurate.”

This article originally appeared in the March 5, 2012 issue of the institute.

Metop-B is the second of three identical Metop satellites, which, together with dedicated ground infrastructure, form the EUMETSAT Polar System (EPS). The purpose of the Metop satellites is to provide continuous, long-term data sets for operational meteorology, climate and environmental monitoring until 2020.

Metop-A in orbit. Source: EUMETSAT.

Each Metop satellite has a nominal lifetime of five years, with a six-month overlap. Metop-A has been in orbit since its launch in 2006. When Metop-B launches in 2012, both satellites will be operated simultaneously by EUMETSAT, until the end of Metop-A’s lifetime. The last of the series, Metop-C, is expected to launch in 2017, at the end of the nominal lifetime of Metop-B.

The satellites are built in Europe by a consortium led by EADS Astrium, within the framework of a successful partnership between EUMETSAT and the European Space Agency (ESA). The ESA is responsible for the development of the space segment, while EUMETSAT is responsible for the development of the overall system, the ground segment and operating the satellites over the duration of the mission. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the French Space Agency also are partners, providing some of the key instruments of the Metop payload.

Figure 1, left, shows the contribution of Metop data (24 percent) - relative to other data sources - to NWP forecasts, which are the basis of weather forecasts. Figure 2, right shows the contribution of individual satellites to NWP forecasts. Source: UK Met Office.

Each Metop satellite carries eight instruments for taking measurements of the atmosphere, including temperature and humidity profiles, cloud properties, and greenhouse and trace gases such as ozone, methane, carbon monoxide, and volcano-emitted sulphur dioxide. These instruments also observe the ocean and continental surfaces, providing measurements of wind at the ocean surface, ice, snow and soil moisture.

“It is very impressive how Metop-A observations are now used by meteorologists, atmospheric scientists and climatologists in Europe, and all over the world. The various instruments on board the satellite provide a wealth of invaluable data,” said Florence Rabier, deputy-head of the Numerical Weather Prediction Group (GMAP) of the CNRM-GAME, a joint research unit of Météo-France and CNRS.

Detection of volcanic ash from the Grímsvötn volcano by IASI. Source: Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy.

When this analysis was focused on the contribution of data from individual satellites to NWP models, Metop-A’s contribution is nearly 40 percent. This is more than double the contribution of other individual weather satellites, and highlights the importance of investment in new, more technologically advanced satellites such as Metop, and NASA’s recently launched SUOMI NPP.

Metop instruments – IASI

One of the key instruments aboard the Metop satellite is the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). The IASI measures infrared energy emitted by the Earth-atmosphere system in thousands of spectral channels. Vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and moisture of unprecedented accuracy can then be extracted from this wealth of information, along with the concentration of some greenhouse and trace gases.

“With IASI, forecast centers like ECMWF – European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts – have gained about half to one day in forecast reliability compared to 15 years ago,” said Dieter Klaes, EUMETSAT EPS Programme Scientist. “IASI has also made a huge difference to our understanding of atmospheric chemistry, and what is particularly exciting is that the instrument has much more capability than was originally foreseen.”

Observations of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide in the atmosphere, from GOME-2. Source: DLR.

“The IASI instrument is highly innovative and is already one of the most informative among the remote sensing instruments of operational and research platforms,” said Rabier of the Numerical Weather Prediction Group.

For climate monitoring, IASI is playing a key role by collecting data on a host of climate variables including temperature and water vapor, and greenhouse and trace gases such as carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), ozone (O₃), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and even carbon dioxide (CO₂) in certain conditions.

An atmospheric temperature profile (0-50 kilometers) obtained from the GRAS instrument (Kelvin). Source: GRAS SAF.

ATOVS

The ATOVS (Advanced TIROS Operational Sounder) is an heritage instrument package delivered by NOAA, which includes the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS/4) sounding instruments. The ATOVS instruments provide temperature and water vapor data at different heights in the atmosphere – even in cloudy conditions – and this data play a key role in weather forecasting, including input to NWP. As the ATOVS instruments were flown on NOAA satellites, they provide data continuity, which helps to build up time series of data for climate monitoring.

GOME-2

The GOME-2 is a spectrometer that provides the capability to monitor atmospheric ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), and other trace gases, in near real-time. It is an important instrument to continue ongoing monitoring of the Antarctic ozone hole and an important source of atmospheric quality information. Because of its ability to monitor SO₂, GOME-2 also has played an important role in monitoring recent volcanic eruptions and, in full synergy with IASI, it is now a component of volcanic activity and air quality warning systems such as TEMIS.

At left, ASCAT wind product showing Tropical Cyclone Phet over the Indian Ocean, close to Oman. Source: KNMI. At right, ASCAT soil moisture (12.5 kilometer resolution) provides an estimate of water saturation of the 5 centimeters topsoil layer, in relative units between 0 (red) and 100 percent (dark blue). Source: EUMETSAT.

GRAS

The GRAS instrument (Global Navigation Satellite System Receiver for Atmospheric Sounding) uses signals from the Global Positioning System and provides information on vertical profiles of temperature and humidity, which are used in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and for climate monitoring. As GRAS is basically self-calibrating, it is extremely valuable for tracking long-term climate change signals.

ASCAT

Monitoring near-surface wind speed and direction over the global oceans is the role of the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), a radar instrument providing crucial data to follow the development of storms and hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. Still, this is just one example of its many uses, as it is also used to monitor sea ice concentration, coverage and type, and its ability to monitor soil moisture has opened up a multitude of uses, including input to NWP models.

Images captured by the AVHRR: Left, Tropical Storm Katia, Aug. 31, 2011. Right, the ash cloud from the Grimsvötn volcano, May 23, 2011.

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/3) is another heritage instrument provided by NOAA, first carried on NOAA-7 in 1981, that provides visible infrared monitoring of cloud cover, sea surface temperature, ice, snow and vegetation and land cover, and is also being used to monitor winds in the polar regions.

Metop-B

After its launch in 2012, Metop-B will be the second European contribution to the Initial Joint Polar System (IJPS) shared by Europe and the United States.

This is cooperation between EUMETSAT and NOAA, where Metop satellites from Europe, and NOAA satellites from the U.S., fly in complementary polar orbits, designed to ensure global data coverage, and instruments are exchanged between partners.

“The benefits of Metop for users in terms of improved weather forecasting, flood and storm warnings are high and these benefits are amplified by our collaboration with NOAA,” said Ratier.

The Initial Joint Polar System.

The series of consecutive Metop satellites are intended to operate until 2020, when they will be succeeded by the next generation system of European polar-orbiting satellites: EUMETSAT Polar System – Second Generation (EPS-SG).

“It is absolutely vital that we continue to collect and improve satellite observations from the polar orbit beyond 2020, to further improve forecasts and thus increase benefits to society,” said Ratier. “Our objective, with ESA, is to secure the availability of the first satellite of the EPS-SG programme by the end of 2020.”

Neil Fletcher is communications manager for EUMETSAT in Darmstadt, Germany. With a background in marine science and Earth observation, Neil has been working as a science communicator for the last 10 years.

A screenshot of the Geopedia.si portal, a commonly used research tool offering access to more than 10,000 spatial layers.

The workshop was attended by 68 representatives of spatial data providers and users, among others, the key institutions providing and managing spatial data and data collections: Surveying and Mapping Administration, Slovenian Environment Agency, Geological Survey of Slovenia, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology, Biotechnical Faculty, Academy of Sciences and Arts, Forestry Institute, and Statistical Office, who presented the current status and activities in development of national spatial data infrastructure. Keynote talks were given by Dr. Herbert Haubold from Austrian Environment Agency, Dr. Silvo Žlebir from Slovenian Environment Agency and Dr. Vojko Bratina from the EC – DG Research.

A survey among the national stakeholders performed as part of the OBSERVE and BalkanGEONet projects showed that the main problems users face in the search for spatial data are fragmentation of available data, poor coordination of data providers, data discovery services, managers and users, high prices charged by some providers and incompatible data formats. Another burning issue is the lack of data quality control systems for datasets not compliant with INSPIRE; many data sets are out-of-date, incomplete or hardly accessible. In spite of a variety of SDI and Earth observation activities — national programs, research projects and EU-funded projects, ranging from in-situ EO data collection (GMOS or the Global Mercury Observation System), development of sensor networks for in-situ and remote sensing, to the development of interactive remote-sensing technologies and microsatellites (Space-SI programme, funded by ERDF) — Slovenia nevertheless remains among the EU countries with the lowest number of reported datasets¹.

As the needs and number of spatial datasets are constantly increasing, private sector became more and more involved and several private web-portals emerged. One of the most compelling examples is the Geopedia.si portal, established in 2007, which grew from a crowd-sourcing application to a commonly used research tool offering access to more than 10,000 spatial layers. As an example, the portal recorded more than 800,000 visitors and 18,000 contributors (individuals and institutional) in 2011, enabling browsing, editing, importing and exporting spatial data, integration into own systems, etc.

A common view of participants at a roundtable discussion at the workshop was that the lack of coordination of activities in data provision and sharing (and in particular the lack of applications for processing and gathering information from spatial data) have to be overcome in an action coordinated at the national level, where governmental bodies play a leading role through better inter-sectorial coordination of their activities.

¹ Vanderbroucke, D., Crompvoets, J., Janssen, K., Bamps, K., Masser, I., Salvemini, M., van Loenen, B., Probert, M., Eiselt, B. 2011, Spatial Data Infrastructures in Europe: State of play spring 2011. D4.2 – Summary report regarding the results of the European Assessment of 34 NSDI (second year). Spatial Application Division, K.U. Leuven Research & Development, 65 pp.

The rapid pace of climate change in northern latitudes presents society with many challenges and a few opportunities. I am writing from the perspective of Vermont in the northeastern United States, where I conduct research on local climate change^1,2, give talks³ and write for local newspapers⁴. In the past few decades in northern New England (45°N), the winter season, when small lakes are frozen, has been lessening by about seven days per decade1. This impacts local ecology, stream flow and human recreational activities like ice fishing. Similarly, ground freeze-up is coming later, and melt is happening earlier in the spring.

Figure 1. Author turning over a cover crop of winter rye on Jan. 2, 2012.

Mean winter temperatures have been increasing by 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade — twice as fast as the annual mean. The minimum winter temperature extremes are increasing even faster. This shrinking of the winter season is being driven by the same climate processes that are driving the rapid melt of the Arctic sea-ice in summer.

Two positive feedbacks are important². As winter snow and ice cover shrinks, the reduced reflection of sunlight is a positive feedback, the familiar snow-ice albedo feedback. Warmer temperatures, with more rain and less snow, as well as reduced snow and ice-cover give more surface evaporation, which increases both the water vapor and cloud feedbacks through the increase in the downward longwave flux. At northern latitudes over land, these processes are familiar to local communities. For example, temperatures plunge after a moderate snowfall, while the diurnal temperature range remains small when there is wet ground with a moist or cloudy atmosphere².

Earlier snow and ground melt in spring advance the date of leaf-out and the last spring frost, and the spring climate transitions². In fall, there is a delay in the first frost and the freeze-up of ground and lakes, so the growing season is extended on both ends¹. The local food movement is burgeoning and the rise in extreme minimum winter temperatures, which allows more crops to winter over in unheated greenhouses, has greatly expanded the availability of green crops in the winter farmers’ markets in Vermont.

Rural communities in northern New England are familiar with these seasonal changes, and are adapting. In the process, they are developing a social understanding of the link between regional climate change and global climate change, as newspaper articles⁵ map out and discuss ongoing changes in terms familiar to local audiences. Moreover, the state has broad public support as it moves ahead with adaptation planning⁶, and the transformation toward a more efficient energy economy, based on renewable sources of energy⁷.

In 2011, Vermont suffered two major floods. Heavy rain in April and May, combined with warm temperatures and the melting of an above-average snowpack led to extensive flooding on the rivers feeding Lake Champlain. The lake rose to a new record level and stayed above flood-stage for two months. In late August, tropical storm Irene dumped more than 150 millimeters of rain across central and southern Vermont, destroying roads and bridges and ultimately cutting off 13 towns. Rebuilding has taken months. These major floods have prompted a reassessment of the vulnerability to increasing precipitation extremes — which have occurred in the northeastern U.S. in recent decades, and are predicted for decades to come.

Figure 2. State-wide ranks for average March-August 2012 precipitation and temperature. Source: NOAA.

On the national scale in the U.S., entrenched political agendas are in denial about our responsibility for global climate change. However, in the northern New England states, communities are adapting to ongoing regional climate change, because the change in the seasons, as well as the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, are readily apparent to state government and to citizens with connections and roots in the outdoors.

References

1. Betts, A.K. (2011): Vermont Climate Change Indicators. Weather, Climate and Society, 3, 106-115, doi: 10.1175/2011WCAS1096.1

2. Betts, A. K. (2011), Seasonal Climate Transitions in New England. Weather, 66, 245-248. doi: 10.1002/wea.754

3. http://alanbetts.com/talks

4. http://alanbetts.com/writings

5. Betts, A.K. and E. Gibson (2011), Environmental journalism revisited. Environmental Leadership: a Reference Handbook. D. R. Gallagher, N. Christensen & P. Andrews, Editors. SAGE publications (accepted). http://alanbetts.com/research/paper/environmental-journalism-revisited/#abstract

6. http://www.anr.state.vt.us/anr/climatechange/Adaptation.html

7. http://www.vtenergyplan.vermont.gov/

8. NOAA NCDC, National temperature and precipitation maps, March-August 2011.

Dr. Alan Betts is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society (AMS) and past-president of the Vermont Academy of Science and Engineering. He has authored more than 150 papers in scientific literature. He was the AMS Jule G. Charney Award winner in 2007. His research is supported by NSF grant AGS05-29797.

ABSTRACT

Glaciers are the visible indicator of climate change. Glacier mass balance, length and snow-melt runoff are some of the glacier parameters directly related to the climate. Glacier length changes in response to climate change with a time delay. This paper studies the change in the length of a benchmark glacier, Chhota Shigri of the Indian Himalayan Mountains, in response to climate change. Remote sensing data and a Toposheet map of 1962 have been used to study the change in the glacier from 1962- 2008. It was found that the glacier has retreated by a length of about 950 meters from 1962 to 2008.

Figure 1: Flow Chart of relation between climate change and glacier length.

It is now known and accepted that the climate is changing. Glaciers are the most visible indicators of global change [1]. Climate controls the glacier behavior and any change in climate is reflected in the glacier. The glacier study is important in the sense that it has a direct relation with climate change. Glaciers respond to change in climate in terms of glacier length, mass balance and runoff. The climate and glaciers are interrelated. Thereby, the glacier length change, the advance or retreat, is the indirect, delayed, filtered but also enhanced signal to a change in climate, whereas the glacier mass balance, or the change in thickness or volume, is the direct and undelayed response to annual atmospheric conditions [2]. It is the climate that is the driving force controlling the mass balance of a glacier in space and time, and resulting in the recession and advancement of a glacier. Climatic ice fluctuations cause variation in the amount of snow and ice lost by melting. Such changes in the mass balance initiate a complex series of changes in the flow of a glacier that ultimately results in a change of the position of terminus [3]. Figure 1 is a flow chart showing the relation between glacier length and climate.

The Himalayas are the youngest and highest mountains of the world and have the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar caps, with glacier coverage of 33,000 square kilometers [4] [5]. The region is aptly called the “Water Tower of Asia” as it provides around 8.6×106 m3 of water annually [5]. Glaciers in the Himalayas feed many important rivers of Asia including Ganga, Amu Darya, Indus, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, Yellow, and Tarim. Apart from feeding the rivers, the Himalayas also play a significant role on the meteorological condition of India. As it is well established that the climate is changing, the same is reflected from the glacier behaviors in terms of size, health and runoff.

Temperature and precipitation are the two most important parameters to study climate change. It is established that the globe is warming. The All-India mean annual temperature has increased by 0.05 degrees Celsius every 10 years from1901-2003, and in the recent three decades, the all-India mean annual temperature has increased by 0.22 degrees Celsius every 10 years, marking a substantial acceleration of the warming trend in the recent period [6].

Speaking of the Himalayas, it is confirmed that the northwest Himalaya region has warmed significantly at a higher rate than the global average. A significant rise of 1.6 degrees Celsius from 1901-2002 has been reported in the northwestern Himalayas [7]. The seasonal mean and maximum, and minimum winter temperatures from 1985 to 2008 also have increased over the Himalayas [8]. The study also reported change in the pattern of seasonal snowfall during the winter in the western Himalayas from 1989-2007. There is a decreasing trend in the winter snowfall from 1989-2008.

Due to the rising temperature in the Himalayas, Himalayan glaciers are melting faster than in other areas of the world [9]. There is a feedback relationship between the glacier and climate. Less snow in the winter and warmer temperatures in the summer will cause a higher equilibrium line and consequently, a negative mass balance causing the glacier to retreat in response. The mass balance of a glacier is the change in mass per unit area over a period of time. It is the difference between the amount of snow and ice accumulation on the glacier and the amount of snow and ice ablation, melting and sublimation, lost from the glacier. Accumulation includes all processes that add snow and ice to the glacier, and ablation includes all processes by which snow and ice are lost from the glacier [3]. ELA is a theoretical snow line at which the glacier mass balance is zero.

A glacier in response to climate will either advance or retreat with a response time of its own. The glacier response time depends on the size and thickness of the glacier. Studies have been done on the Himalayan glaciers, its change in area and length, change in mass balance, glacier velocity and on the run off. These parameters reflect the climatic effect on the glacier. A geological Survey of India [10] studied the Gara, Gor Garang, Shaune Garang, and Nagpo Tokpo Glaciers of Satluj River Basin and observed an average retreat of 4.22 to 6.8 meters a year. A study done by Kulkarni and others for 466 glaciers located in northwest Himalayan shows those maximum glaciers of the region are in the state of retreat [11]. The Gangotri glacier of the Himalaya has been in retreat by 2 kilometers from 1780 to 2001 and is still in a retreating state.

The present study makes an attempt to document the change in the length of Chhota Shigri glacier due to change in climate over the past years from 1962- 2008.

Figure 2: Location map of study area Source: National Informatics Centre.

To study the effect of change in climate on glacier length, Chhota Shigri glacier was chosen, as it is located in climatically important region of the Himalayas. The glacier lies in the Chandra basin that is a sub basin of Chenab Basin and comes under Himachal Pradesh, India. The glacier is climatologically important, as it is located in the monsoon-arid transition zone. The glacier is considered to be a potential indicator of the northern limits of the intensity of the monsoon [12]. The glacier is influenced both by the Indian summer monsoon and by western disturbances in winter. The glacier is 9 kilometers long and is located between 32°11’ – 32°17’ N and 77°30’ -77°32’ E and occupies an elevation of 4000 to 5660 m a.s.l. [13].

Chhota Shigri was selected as the benchmark glacier in the HKH region by the International Commission of Snow and Ice (now this is Commission of Cryospheric Science) in 2002. The glacier has been monitored and studied by many glaciologists. Continuous field mass balance measurement was carried out on the glacier by a joint team of Indian and French researchers from 2002-2007[14]. The glacier has shown negative mass balance for last 20 years [15]. The cumulative specific mass balance of Chhota Shigri glacier from 1986-1989 was -0.21 m.w.e. [16]. A study on the ELA variation of the glacier has shown that the ELA has an average rate of upward shifting by 31 meters per year from 1987- 2004 [13].

Field investigations at the Chhota Shigri glacier done in 1988 and 2003 suggest a retreat of 800 meters from 1988- 2003 [11]. Kumar and Dobhal have examined the fluctuation of the snout position of Chhota Shigri glacier from 1962-1989 and stated that period as one of general retreat [17]. In their study, they reported that the glacier had been retreating for every year between 1962 and 1989, except in 1987 when it advanced about 17.5 meters. The total recession of the glacier was 195 meters with an average rate of 7.5 meters a year over 26 years [17].

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Due to the harsh weather and rugged terrain of the Himalayas, monitoring of glaciers is difficult by direct field methods. Remote sensing offers an efficient technique for glacier monitoring and mapping for glaciological studies. Remote sensing has the advantages of giving a synoptic view of the Earth on a regular basis and estimation of glacier extent on satellite imagery is an important aspect of glacier retreat estimation. The change in length of a glacier shows how the climate has changed in terms of temperature and precipitation. The change in the length and in area of the Chhota Shigri glacier was studied from 1962 to 2008 using various data sources, including Toposheet maps and satellite images from different sensors.

Figure 3a, left: The glacier area over the years. Figure 3b, right: The trend in change of glacier area.

Figure 4: Change in the glacier boundary between 1962, 1999 and 2008.

The change in length was measured along the centerline of the glacier, also called the glacier tongue. The shrinkage in glacier was measured in terms of change in area over the studied period. From the study of satellite images and Toposheet map, it was found that the glacier has receded by a length of about 950 meters from 1962- 2008. The glacier has vacated an area of 0.19 square kilometers from 1962- 2008, with a standard deviation of 0.065046. From 1999-2008, the glacier retreated by about 190 meters.

According to the satellite images study, the glacier has retreated at a rate of 15 meters per year from 1999-2008 (Figure 3a). The average loss in glacier area from 1999-2008 was 0.0215 square kilometers, with a standard deviation of 0.0179. Figure 3b shows the trend in the change in the glacier area from 1962 -2008. There is a decreasing trend in the glacier area with r²=0.95. The glacier has been in the continuous state of retreat as studied by the remote sensing data (Figure 4).

4. CONCLUSION

A glacier will happily advance in a healthy climate and retreat in response to a warmer climate. We have seen from the change in the length of the Chhota Shigri glacier for 46 years, from 1962-2008, that the glacier has retreated significantly. This change in the length is due to the change in temperature and the snowfall pattern in the Himalayan region. The glacier length change study also is important for the melt and runoff modeling purpose, which again is done for the hydrological study.

5. REFERENCES

[1] A. Fischer, “Glaciers and climate change: Interpretation of 50 years of direct mass balance of Hintereisferner”, Global and Planetary Change, 71, 13–26, 2010.

[2] W. Haeberli and M. Hoelzle” Application of inventory data for estimating characteristics of and regional climate-change effects on mountain glaciers: a pilot study with the European Alps”, Ann. Glaciol., 21, 206–212, 1995.

[3] W.S.B. Paterson, “The Physics of Glaciers”, 3rd ed. Pergamon: Oxford, 1994.

[4] M.K. Kaul, “. Inventory of Himalayan Glacier”, Geol. Surv. India, Spl. Pub. 3, 1999.

[5]M.B. Dyurgerov and M.F. Meier, “Year-to-year fluctuations of global mass balance of small glaciers and their contribution to sea-level changes”, Arctic and Alpine Research, 29, 392-401, 1997.

[6] D.R. Kothawale and K. Rupa Kumar, “On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32(18), L18714. (10.1029/2005GL023528.), 2005.

[7] M.R. Bhutiyani, V.S. Kale and N.J. Pawar, “Long-term trends in maximum, minimum and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth century”, Climatic Change, 85(1–2), 159–177, 2007.

[8] M.S. Shekhar, H. Chand, S. Kumar, K. Srinivasan and A Ganju, “ Climate-change studies in the western”, Annals of Glaciology 51(54) 2010, 105, 112, 2010.

[9] M.B. Dyurgerov and M.F. Meier, “Glaciers and Changing Earth System: A 2004 Snapshot”, Boulder (Colorado): Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Occasional Paper 58, 2005.

[10] C.P. Vohra, “Note on recent glaciological expedition in Himachal Pradesh”, Geol. Surv. India Spec. Publ., 6, pp. 26–29, 1981.

[11] A.V. Kulkarni, I. M. Bahuguna, B.P. Rathore, S.K. Singh, S.S. Randhawa, R.K. Sood, and S. Dhar, “Glacial retreat in Himalaya using Indian Remote Sensing satellite data” Curr Sci, 92 (1), 69-74, 2007.

[12] L. Krenek and V. Bhawan, “Recent and past glaciation of Lahaul”. Indian Geogr. Jour., 3, 93-102, 1945.

[13] RajeshKumar, S.L. Hasnain, P. Wagnon, Y. Arnaud, P. Chevallier, A. Linda and P. Sharma, “Climate Change signals detected through mass balance measurement on benchmark glacier,Himachal Pradesh, India. In Climatic and anthropogenic impacts on the variability of water resources”, G Mahe ( Sci. Ed). Technical Document in Hydrology No 80, UNESCO, 65- 74, 2007.

[14] P. Wagnon, R. Kumar, Y. Arnaud, A. Linda, P. Sharma, C.Vincent, J. Pottakal, E. Berthier, A. Ramanathan, S.I. Hassnain, and P. Chevalier, “Four years of mass balance on Chhota ShigriGlacier, Himachal Pradesh, India, a new benchmark glacier in the western Himalaya”, J Glaciol, 53 (183), 603 – 611, 2007.

[15] A. Linda, “Snow and Ice Mass Budget of Chhota Shigri Glacier, Lahaul-Spiti Valley, Himachal Pradesh 2003-2007”, PhD thesis, 2008.

[16] D.P. Dobhal, S. Kumar and A.K. Mundepi, “Morphology and glacier dynamics studies in monsoon–arid transition zone: an example from Chhota Shigri glacier, Himachal Himalaya, India”, Current Sci., 68(9), 936–944, 1995.

[17] S Kumar and D P Dobhal, “Snout Fluctuation Study of Chhota-Shigri Glacier Lahaul and Spiti District, Himachal-Pradesh”, Journal of the Geological Society of India, 44(5), 581-585, 1994.

[18] G. Ostrem, “ERTS data in Glaciology- An effort to monitor glacier mass balance from satellite imagery”, Journal of Glaciology , 15(73): 403-415, 1975.

Pratima Pandey is a Ph.D. student at the Centre of Studies in Resources Engineering (CSRE), Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay.

G. Venkataraman is a professor at CSRE.

The first issue is comprised of National Thematic Reports that describe the status of Earth Observation (EO) activities for the environment in most of the Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYROM, Greece, Serbia, Slovenia and Turkey).

All stakeholders of EO research, industry, academia and policy making, either situated or having interest in the region of South Eastern Europe, are welcome to contribute and are cordially invited to support this effort.

The deadline for full paper submission for the April regular issue is March 15. The journal is called the South-Eastern European Journal of Earth Observation and Geomatics.

Editorial

The nine societal benefit areas (Agriculture, Biodiversity, Climate, Disasters, Ecosystems, Energy, Health, Water, Weather), identified by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) member states, clearly shows that Earth Observation is here to benefit citizens. This global effort can be traced in international organizations and initiatives like GEO (Group on Earth Observations), GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems), and CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites).

The European Union lists its EO priority actions as satellite navigation, space for the benefit of the environment and the fight against climate change, secure space, and space exploration.

Therefore, a global picture of the EO industry is progressing with actors, such as:

• Providers of EO data, who are either public institutions or commercial enterprises;
• Users of EO data, who are either institutions, companies, or the general public;
• Sources of EO data, which are either sensors/instruments, models/simulators, or databases.

The major effort is to provide timely, accurate and inexpensive data for land monitoring, marine environment monitoring, atmosphere monitoring, emergency management, security, and climate change with the use of aerial-and satellite-based EO technologies. And this requires user consultation, followed by algorithmic studies, processing activities, and validation efforts to convert satellite data and calibration constants into physically realistic information. On the other hand, a common processing approach guarantees the long-term generation of consistent and traceable results.

Finally, Information and Communication Technologies emerged and provided the infrastructure for Open Geodata Standardization, uniformity in data (eg. EU INSPIRE Directive) and wide availability of data sources through Geo portals (eg. UNEP Geodata, FAO Geo-network, ICSU World Data System, EEA Urban Atlas, etc.)

Balkan countries, on the other hand, do not have a coherent and continuous approach toward the challenge of implementing integrated EO applications in environmental monitoring and management. The defect in the implementation of EO applications and their use in the environmental decision-making process are manifested through the limited synergies among national and regional institutions, the lack of substantial infrastructure, ineffective technological means, and a discontinuous record of participation to international organizations and committees.

The South-Eastern European Journal of Earth Observation and Geomatics (SEEJoEOG) aims at offering a scientific forum to experts from southeastern Europe, in order to enhance the scientific dialogue, fill the existing gap in policies and applications, build-up acquaintances, establish networks and co-operations, and contribute to regional capacity building.

For this reason, it is a free, open-access, e-journal.

Petros Patias, OBSERVE coordinator, is a professor and ex-chairman at the School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, The Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, board member of the Department of Urban Planning, and Vice Rector at the University of Western Macedonia, Greece. His published work includes six books, four chapters in international books and 161 papers in journals and proceedings.

See also

An Introduction to OBSERVE, Strengthening and development of Earth Observation activities for the environment in the Balkan area.

A Post-GEO Plenary Workshop on Earth Observations for the Social Benefit of the Balkans